Market risk is not physics. It just acts like it. Until it doesn’t.
One of the early quants at former Wall Street heavyweight Salomon Brothers, Dr Lance Smith has a rich mathematical background, but believes there is much more to risk management than the mathematical models.
“A tsunami strikes Japan, or a Brexit strikes the UK,” says Smith. “Things happen that are not in the tea leaves of historical data. On the other hand, physics is repeatable. Given the same starting point and conditions, you can predict the outcome with well-defined and known probabilities.”
“Not so with the markets,” he adds. “You don’t get do overs. Traders make bets that are tilted in their favor, and the key is to make sure that you can survive the negative surprises and reap the benefits of making such bets.”
The Dollar Milkshake Theory – Stress Testing the Potential Impact of a Sovereign Debt and Currency Crisis
Stress Tests play an important role in improving financial stability by enhancing market discipline and transparency. Here we consider the third example of these stresses based on current market conditions and show how the risk factors can be generated along with their relevant shock examples.
Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Western nations have imposed sanctions on many Russian individuals, businesses and state-run enterprises. Stress Tests play an important role in improving financial stability by enhancing market discipline and transparency.
Stress Tests play an important role in improving financial stability by enhancing market discipline and transparency. Clients leverage TS Imagine’s flexible and powerful risk engine to stress test a variety of specific scenarios. With Americans set to commence voting early next week, markets around the globe are watching carefully. Will the midterms disrupt the Democratic legislative agenda or tip in their favor? We ran two scenarios through our stress-testing engine, gaming the potential market impacts. Please note that these are hypothetical shocks and are not a prediction of any forthcoming events.