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Trump vs Clinton: Election Scenario Analysis
Months after the UK’s vote to leave the EU (Brexit), prices in risk assets are still swaying from one Article 50 headline to the next. In the US, November 8 presents a similar risk management challenge to market participants because of the outcome of the long-awaited and heavily-contested US Presidential Election.
Not unlike Brexit, the market has once again predicted one outcome as more likely than the alternative, the question of how markets might react, and the subsequent resulting price changes if the unlikely prevails. Below, we present an example of estimates, as we did for Brexit, for either outcome of the vote:
| Probability (approx.) | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Asset Class | Clinton Wins | Trump Wins |
| USDCHF | 2% | -4% |
| US Bond Prices | -1% | 2% |
| US Equities | 1% | -3% |
| Gold | -1% | 5% |
| Volatility | -5% | 20% |
Please contact Consulting or your TS Imagine representative for help with constructing your own scenario analysis.
Disclaimer
The stresses described in this blog post illustrate one possible scenario and are intended to be used in general as guidance towards risk management of market events.
David White worked as an equity trader and portfolio manager in derivatives for more than five years before joining TS Imagine’s London office as a Consultant in 2015. David’s roles are to advise and offer consulting services for systematic applications of risk management and derivatives pricing. David leads and is the project manager for EMEA client implementations. David holds a bachelor’s degree from Bournemouth University. He can be reached by email and phone: +44 (0) 7440 0743.
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